Risk Perception, Uncertainty, and Facility Siting

This dissertation highlights the results of an investigation of the effects of uncertainty on siting decisions involving Locally Unwanted Land Uses (LULUs). Focusing specifically on the siting of natural gas-powered energy facilities in California, the analysis of data gathered from a survey of participants illustrates the effects of participants' uncertainties on siting processes and outcomes. The research focuses on four specific types of uncertainties: environmental risk uncertainty; solution uncertainty; interaction uncertainty; and commitment uncertainty. Environmental risk uncertainty is associated with perceived impacts on the environment. Solution uncertainty is tied to the process of evaluating and selecting proposed solutions or alternatives. Interaction uncertainty relates to the difficulty in determining the perceptions of others, the information that they hold, their preferences for solutions, and their likely actions. Commitment uncertainty influences participants' assessments of the credibility of commitments made by other parties in the siting process. The findings point to the presence of each of the four types of uncertainty among siting process participants. In addition, the research suggests that participants exhibited certain actions as a result of their uncertainties including questioning experts, exhibiting reduced trust, focusing on a narrow set of issues, and manipulating analyses of alternatives. Further, the findings provide insights into the influence of uncertainty on siting process outcomes such as decision optimality and conflict among participants. Overall, the research suggests the importance of understanding the underlying basis of LULU responses and the need to craft siting processes that mitigate or at least account for participants' uncertainties.