Adaptive Mechanisms of Superior Judgment under Uncertainty

Several studies demonstrate a consistent, positive relationship between cognitive ability measures and normatively superior judgment and decision behavior. However, little is known about the cognitive processes and mechanisms that give rise to these individual differences or more generally produce rational judgments under uncertainty. In a series of two experiments, protocol analysis and individual difference measures were used to demonstrate that, in contrast to the processes predicted by a rational theory (i.e. expected value calculations), rational choices often arise from combinations of simple considerations. These processes are similar to those predicted by the priority heuristic, although the priority heuristic generally predicted choices poorly, at or below chance levels. Critically, individual differences in elaborative adaptive strategies (e.g. more and more varied combinations of simple considerations) were strongly positively related to rational choices and fully mediated the cognitive ability and rational choice relationship. Implications for descriptive and process level models of choice are discussed.