Probabilistic and Graphical Analysis of Evidence in O.J. Simpson's Murder Case Using Bayesian Networks

This research work is an attempt to illustrate the versatility and wide applications of the field of statistical science. Specifically, the research work involves the application of statistics in the field of law. The application will focus on the sub-fields of Evidence and Criminal law using one of the most celebrated cases in the history of American jurisprudence - the 1994 O.J. Simpson murder case in California. Our task here is to do a probabilistic and graphical analysis of the body of evidence in this case using Bayesian Networks. We will begin the analysis by first constructing our main hypothesis regarding the guilt or non-guilt of the accused; this main hypothesis will be supplemented by a series of ancillary hypotheses. Using graphs and probability concepts, we will be evaluating the probative force or strength of the evidence and how well the body of evidence at hand will prove our main hypothesis. We will employ Bayes rule, likelihoods and likelihood ratios to carry out such an evaluation. Some sensitivity analyses will be carried out by varying the degree of our prior beliefs or probabilities, and evaluating the effect of such variations on the likelihood ratios regarding our main hypothesis.