Path of Least Desistance

Scholars have speculated that inmate behavior may provide a signal about the probability of desistance. One such signal may be the successful avoidance of prison infractions or the cessation of them during the course of incarceration. Drawing on studies of prison socialization, recidivism, and desistance, we assess whether patterns of inmate misconduct throughout the course of incarceration provide insight into the likelihood of a successful transition back into society. Specifically, using data on a cohort of state prisoners, this study examines whether, after controlling for potential confounders, inmate misconduct trajectories predict recidivism. The analyses indicate both that unique misconduct trajectories can be identified and that these trajectories predict the probability of recidivism and desistance net of factors associated with recidivism. Results of the study lend support to scholarship on desistance and signaling, which emphasizes the salience of in-prison experiences for understanding reentry and, in particular, reoffending.