Public Opinion, Security Threats, and Foreign Policy Formation

Does public opinion influence foreign policy? Much work, following the example of such scholars as Page and Shapiro (1983), has suggested that mass public opinion is stable, and is rational and that public policy outputs follow public opinion in advanced democratic countries. Using the case of Germany, I employ a process tracing analysis as well as time series and cross-national time-series regression analyses to test the generalizability of the hypothesis of an opinion-foreign policy nexus in Europe between the years 1970-2002. Results here contradict literature on expected public opinion and policy outputs in the Cold War period yet are supported after. I find that the predicted effect of public opinion on foreign policy outputs to be confounded by such factors as security threats. I conclude that a divergence between the threat perception of leaders and of the public is likely to result in a lack of congruence between public opinion and a state's foreign policy outputs. Convergence between leaders and public opinion in post-Cold War Germany and more broadly in Europe may have necessitated a reassessment of the longstanding foreign policy relationship with the US.